spc severe weather - big bay weather

Online since October of 2007

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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Jan 31 2026 10:59 am

Day 1

D4	Tuesday Feb 3 2026 - Wednesday Feb 4 2026	D7	Friday Feb 6 2026 - Saturday Feb 7 2026
D5	Wednesday Feb 4 2026 - Thursday Feb 5 2026	D8	Saturday Feb 7 2026 - Sunday Feb 8 2026
D6	Thursday Feb 5 2026 - Friday Feb 6 2026	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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