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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jun 25 2019 10:40 pm


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 251953
SWODY1
SPC AC 251952

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
the evening is forecast from southeast Nebraska to northwest
Missouri and southern Iowa, where very large hail and sporadic
severe gusts are possible.

...Discussion...
The only substantial change this forecast update was to trend
towards the notion of greater storm coverage across parts of
southeast NE east along the MO/IA border.  Short-term guidance has
shown a tendency for lower storm coverage across parts of
east-central KS where 30-percent hail probabilities were located in
the previous outlook.  Have adjusted these probabilities to both
communicate this trend in model guidance but also to seemingly
reflect where convective potential appears highest across southeast
NE according to visible satellite imagery.  

Otherwise, the previous forecast thinking is on track.

..Smith.. 06/25/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019/

...NE/KS/MO/IA...
Water vapor imagery shows relatively strong zonal midlevel winds
extending from the northern Great Basin across the northern Plains. 
The southern fringe of the stronger westerlies lies across CO/KS/MO,
where a weak E-W surface boundary is also present.  South of the
boundary, southerly low-level winds are helping to transport very
moist air northward, with dewpoints expected to approach 70F by late
afternoon along the border of eastern KS/NE.  Strong heating is also
occurring, which will yield an extremely unstable air mass. Present
indications are that isolated intense storms will form along the
boundary in the 19-21z period, with initial supercells capable of
very large hail and damaging wind gusts.  An isolated tornado or two
is also possible.  Activity is expected to build quickly eastward
during the late afternoon along the boundary into southern IA and
northern MO.  Activity may organize into one or more short bowing
segments with a risk of damaging wind gusts.

...Northern Plains...
The axis of strong midlevel winds extends across southern MT into
SD, with a few weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow.  It
appears likely that widely scattered strong storms will develop over
the higher terrain of western and southern MT by late afternoon -
spreading eastward through the evening.  As this activity emerges
into western SD later today, slightly greater moisture/instability
profiles may result in sufficient intensification for a few
organized severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

...IA/IL/WI into Lower MI and northern IN...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV over
eastern IA.  Strong heating is occurring ahead of this feature, and
some of the 12z CAM guidance suggests that a cluster of
thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over southern
WI/northern IL.  If this occurs, strong westerly flow aloft, steep
low-level lapse rates, and sufficient CAPE would pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.  Have expanded the risk areas slightly farther
east/south into Lower Michigan and northern Indiana, and will
monitor the region for further expansions of severe potential in
later updates.

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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