Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 180044
SWODY1
SPC AC 180042

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.

...01z Update...

Convection, capable of producing lightning, will be sparse across
the CONUS the remainder of the period.

00z soundings across the Pacific northwest exhibit steep
low-midlevel lapse rates with weak surface-based buoyancy capable of
supporting weak convection. However, lightning has remained mostly
offshore and this activity should die off as the upper trough moves
inland.

Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the central Rockies
later tonight which should aid mid-level moistening/buoyancy as
profiles cool. While lapse rates will be supportive of convection it
appears lightning should be limited and mostly near the San Juan
mountains of CO.

Lightning will also remain sparse along the Gulf Coast as
forcing/buoyancy remain at very low latitudes through 12z.

..Darrow.. 10/18/2019

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4