Day 1

Categorical Day 2 Outlook

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the
northern High Plains region.

...Synopsis...
Some breakdown of upper ridging over the western U.S. is expected
this period, as short-wave troughing moving inland across British
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest shifts east-northeastward across
the northern Intermountain Region/Canadian Rockies and into the
Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains overnight.  The result will
be evolution toward more zonal/westerly flow across the northwestern
U.S., with flatter ridging remaining over the Southwest.  

Farther east, cyclonic flow will prevail over the eastern half of
the country, as the trough moves slowly eastward across the
Appalachians through the period.

At the surface, a cold front will continue to advance away from the
coast/across the western Atlantic, lingering across deep South Texas
early, and the Florida Peninsula through the period.  In the West, a
cold front will advance across northwestern portions of the country
as aforementioned short-wave troughing crosses the region.

...Northern High Plains...
Diurnal heating of a relatively moist High-Plains boundary layer
will occur Wednesday, which will contribute to substantial CAPE
development near the lee trough, and ahead of a cold front crossing
the northern Intermountain Region during the afternoon.  However,
with weak forcing for ascent expected, likelihood that capping will
persist across most of the area suggests that deep moist convective
development will be subdued.  

At this time, it appears that a few cells may eventually initiate in
the vicinity of the lee trough, and with veering/increasing flow
with height providing favorable shear, the cells would likely
organize/acquire rotation.  Threat for hail and locally damaging
winds would thus accompany these cells.  However, with coverage
expected to remain limited, will maintain only 5%/MRGL risk across
this area.  A lingering storm or two may spread southeastward across
the western Dakotas after dark, as a 40-plus kt low-level jet
develops, possibly allowing very limited/isolated severe potential
to linger into the evening hours.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Goss.. 07/23/2019

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4