Day 1

Categorical Day 2 Outlook

Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS02 KWNS 191723
SWODY2
SPC AC 191722

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on
Saturday.

...Western U.S. into the Northern Plains...

An upper trough will shift eastward from the Pacific coast to the
Great Basin on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will shift
eastward across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and western
Great Basin, while another front drops south/southeast across the
northern Plains. Modest destabilization will occur ahead of these
surface fronts from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and
widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated as increasing ascent
ahead of the upper trough increases convection through the morning
and afternoon hours. Generally scant boundary layer moisture and
modest shear will limit severe potential. However, steep midlevel
lapse rates will be in place across the region. A stronger storm or
two is possible along the surface frontal zone from northeast WY
into northern SD/southern ND where marginal moisture (surface
dewpoints upper 40s/low 50s) and stronger surface heating will
occur.  Low to midlevel winds are quite weak across this area, which
may temper the threat for strong wind gusts despite inverted-v
boundary layer thermodynamic profiles. Furthermore, weak elevated
instability above the mixed layer should preclude severe hail
threat. Trends will be monitored for possible marginal probs in
future outlooks, but currently the threat appears too
limited/conditional for severe probs.

...Portions of PA/NY and southern New England...

An upper low will migrate north/northeast over the central
Appalachians on Saturday. A surface low over the upper Ohio River
Valley will slowly shift north across western PA/NY and into Canada.
Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will be in place across much
of the region during the morning, but a midlevel dryslot will
quickly move across PA/NY, suppressing convection except near the
upper low center across western PA/far western NY where forcing is
strongest. Weak instability will preclude a severe threat across
this region on Saturday.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Leitman.. 04/19/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4