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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 27 2020 6:08 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

398 
ACUS03 KWNS 260720
SWODY3
SPC AC 260719

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
TEXAS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest Texas into
deep south Texas Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible across portions of the
Tennessee and Middle Ohio Valleys.

...Southern Plains...
Upper cyclone is forecast to be centered over the Ozark Plateau
early Thursday. This cyclone is expected to move northeastward
throughout the day, leaving northwesterly to westerly flow aloft
over the southern Plains in its wake. Surface pattern is expected to
feature a weak low over central OK with a front extending
southwestward back into the TX Permian Basin. This boundary will
likely surge southeastward throughout the day, interacting with the
moist air mass downstream covering much of TX. Warm temperatures
aloft may preclude widespread thunderstorm development but the
environment will support for strong to severe storms with any
initiation that does occur.  

...Southeast into the Middle OH Valley...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from the
lower/middle MS Valley eastward into the OH/TN Valleys as the upper
cyclone initially over the Ozarks progresses northeastward. Enhanced
low to mid-level flow throughout the eastern periphery of the upper
cyclone will spread eastward/northeastward from the Southeast
through the TN Valley into the middle OH Valley. This will result in
enough vertical shear to support a few stronger, more organized
updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Modest instability is
currently expected to limit a more widespread or intense severe
threat.

...Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is expected to move from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest on Thursday.
An associated surface low is forecast to move through western
Ontario while an attendant cold front moves through the Upper
Midwest. Guidance varies on the amount of destabilization that
precedes the front across central/southern WI and adjacent portions
of northwest IA and northern IL, but thunderstorms are probable.
Weak vertical shear will limit overall severe potential but
instability will likely be high enough to support a few stronger
storms.

..Mosier.. 05/26/2020

$$

        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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