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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 18 2019 4:23 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS03 KWNS 170728
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may occur over portions of the southeastern U.S.
coastal areas, and into parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
As upper troughing over the central U.S. early Saturday weakens as
it shifts northeastward toward/into the Great Lakes/Northeast with
time, a second area of troughing initially near the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coasts is expected to dig southeastward
across the Intermountain West, gradually amplifying as it does so. 
Elsewhere, a weaker, southern-stream trough is expected to cross the
Southeast states.

At the surface, a cold front progged to initially lie near/just west
of the Mississippi Valley, is expected to undergo frontolysis with
time, as its parent upper trough deamplifies ahead of the
second/digging western trough.  Late in the period, a second area of
low pressure/frontal development is expected over the northern High
Plains, in response to the western trough's advance.

Meanwhile, low pressure initially in the vicinity of the
central/eastern Gulf Coast region is expected to move across the
Southeast -- though substantial model differences exist with respect
to timing of the low's progression.  Despite this however, the
evolution of this surface system will likely result in at least
isolated severe potential with associated convection, as it
traverses the GA/FL/SC vicinity.

...Portions of Florida northward into the coastal Carolinas...
As low pressure advances inland/across the Southeast U.S. Saturday,
the combination of a moist warm sector spreading across the area,
coupled with substantial shear -- especially at low-levels in the
northeast quadrant of the low -- suggests at least local severe
risk, including potential for a few tornadoes.  The substantial
model discrepancies evident with respect to timing of the low's
advance currently preclude a detailed assessment of location/degree
of risk at this point, hence only the initial inclusion of a MRGL/5%
risk area.  With that said however, upgrade in risk category --
including tornado potential -- may be necessary for parts of this
area in future outlooks, as evolution of the surface low becomes
more certain over time.

..Goss.. 10/17/2019

$$
        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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