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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 20 2019 5:18 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS03 KWNS 190722
SWODY3
SPC AC 190721

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible from the
middle Mississippi Valley south into the Arklatex on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Maturing mid-latitude cyclone is expected to move from the central
High Plains northward/north-northeastward into the northern Plains
on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft throughout eastern periphery will
spread from the central Plains northward/northeastward through the
mid MS Valley. 

At the surface, a low will gradually occlude as it take a similar
path to the upper-level cyclone, while the overall system becomes
increasingly vertically stacked. A dryline extending southwestward
from this low will track across central OK/KS eastward into the mid 
MS Valley, augmented by outflow from a progressive convective line.
A warm front will also extend eastward/east-southeastward from this
low. This front is expected to gradually move northeastward during
day. By 00Z Wednesday, this warm front will likely extend from
eastern NE southeastward through north-central MO and into southern
IL. 

...Lower MO/Mid MS Valleys into the Arklatex...
Progressive convective line will likely be ongoing at the beginning
of the period and occasional damaging wind gusts are possible.
Continued eastward/northeastward motion is anticipated, with
increasing severe thunderstorm coverage likely as the downstream air
mass destabilizes amidst low-level moisture advection. Some
displacement will exist between the better flow aloft (across the
lower MO and mid MS Valleys) and the stronger instability (across
AR, northeast TX, and northern LA). Even so, the strength of the
flow aloft and resulting vertical shear supports a potential
reinvigoration of the line Tuesday afternoon. Primary severe threat
would be damaging wind gusts. 

...Central/Eastern NE...Eastern KS...
A late afternoon severe threat may develop across the region as the
cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low move over a
well-mixed boundary layer. Instability is modest but favorable
shear, particularly in areas near the warm front where the surface
winds remain southeasterly, could support a few storms capable of
hail and maybe even a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 05/19/2019

$$
        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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