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SPC Day 3 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Aug 20 2019 6:12 am


Categorical Probabilistic <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 1


Categorical Day 2 Outlook

000
ACUS03 KWNS 190733
SWODY3
SPC AC 190732

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the
Northeast, and from the central High Plains to the lower Missouri
Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move from James Bay into Quebec, with a leading
shortwave trough developing east across the Great Lakes. Winds aloft
will increase through the period over the northeastern states, with
around 35 kt at 500 mb by late afternoon. Southerly surface winds
will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward into southern New
England as low pressure deepens over southern Quebec which will
result in sufficient instability for strong to severe storms.

To the west, an upper ridge will weaken as it moves from the Rockies
into the Plains, with an upper trough moving across the Pacific
Northwest. High pressure will exist over the northern Plains but
surface winds will back over the northern High Plains resulting in
westward moisture advection. To the southeast, the front will
continue to progress southward across IA, IL and northern MO, with
strong instability developing once again ahead of it.

...Northeast...
Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain moisture advection
across the region, which will increase instability but also result
in areas of early day precipitation, as a warm front lifts north
over New England. Meanwhile, shear will become more favorable for
severe storms throughout the period as the upper trough approaches
from the west.

Forecast soundings indicate perhaps 1500 J/kg MUCAPE developing from
eastern PA into southern New England during the day, with
southwesterly 850 mb winds increasing to around 30 kt. Various
models differ regarding strength of shear, but conditions will at
least be marginally favorable for a few supercells and/or bowing
segments developing within the surface trough, which will precede
the primary cold front. Depending on the dominant storm mode, wind,
hail, or a brief tornado will be possible, and parts of the area may
be upgraded to a Slight Risk in later outlooks when predictability
increases.

...Central High Plains to Missouri...
Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing across parts of the
central Plains, along and north of the east-west front.
Predictability is low regarding where these storm clusters may be,
but a general east/southeastward development is anticipated from
KS/NE into MO and IL ahead of the front. Shear will be weak, but
ample moisture and instability may lead to localized wind damage.

To the west, low-level moisture will shift into eastern CO and WY,
beneath steep lapse rates aloft. This will favor a few daytime cells
capable of hail, with merging outflows likely as well producing
strong wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2019

$$
        

Day 2

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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