Day 1

D4	Monday Oct 21 2019 - Tuesday Oct 22 2019	D7	Thursday Oct 24 2019 - Friday Oct 25 2019
D5	Tuesday Oct 22 2019 - Wednesday Oct 23 2019	D8	Friday Oct 25 2019 - Saturday Oct 26 2019
D6	Wednesday Oct 23 2019 - Thursday Oct 24 2019	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

        


000
ACUS48 KWNS 170901
SWOD48
SPC AC 170900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear to be in reasonable
agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features through Day 4 and
into the first half of the Day 5 period.  After this, differences in
the evolution of the large trough progged to crossing the Plains
states Day 4 and then the Mississippi Day 5 begin to become fairly
substantial.  As such, confidence in the predictability of the
pattern beyond day 5 is quite limited.

In the mean time, some potential for the evolution of scattered to
isolated severe storms remains apparent over the eastern Oklahoma
and Arklatex region and surrounding areas Day 4 (Sunday 10-20), as a
deepening surface low shifts out of the central and northern High
Plains and eventually reaches the Minnesota vicinity. 
Correspondingly, a trailing cold front is shown crossing eastern
Kansas/Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon, as warm-sector
destabilization becomes diurnally maximized.  As favorably strong
flow aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the advancing
surface front, at least isolated cells -- developing as residual
capping is locally breached -- will evolve within a sheared
environment likely supportive of rotating updrafts.  

Storms may diminish somewhat in intensity overnight, but it appears
that reintensification of convection -- and regeneration of
accompanying severe risk -- should occur across portions of the
central Gulf Coast region, as the front continues its eastward
advance through an amply moist/destabilizing low-level airmass. 
Again, potential for supercells, and all severe hazards, appears
possible.

By Day 6, model differences -- including with location of the
surface frontal position -- have become substantial enough to
preclude continuation of severe risk into the eastern Gulf
Coast/southern Atlantic Coast states.

..Goss.. 10/17/2019
        

Day 2

Day 3