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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Jan 21 2019 12:32 pm


 

Day 1

D4Thursday Jan 24 2019 - Friday Jan 25 2019 D7Sunday Jan 27 2019 - Monday Jan 28 2019
D5Friday Jan 25 2019 - Saturday Jan 26 2019 D8Monday Jan 28 2019 - Tuesday Jan 29 2019
D6Saturday Jan 26 2019 - Sunday Jan 27 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 210830 SWOD48 SPC AC 210829 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a cold front will be located near the East Coast and trailing into central Florida, beneath a strong, meridional jet max which will quickly move offshore by afternoon. Sufficient instability will exist over Florida for a few thunderstorms during the day, but lift will decrease over time, and severe weather is not expected. After this particular disturbance moves offshore, a very large upper trough will amplify over eastern North America, with the upper low shifting south toward James Bay. The resulting northwest flow regime over the Plains will support periodic surges of cold, dry air, in turn keeping any significant moisture and instability offshore. As a result, little to no thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS through the remainder of the outlook period. ..Jewell.. 01/21/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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