Online since October of 2007
Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website
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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook
Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 20 2019 5:18 am
|D4||Thursday May 23 2019 - Friday May 24 2019
||D7||Sunday May 26 2019 - Monday May 27 2019
|D5||Friday May 24 2019 - Saturday May 25 2019
||D8||Monday May 27 2019 - Tuesday May 28 2019
|D6||Saturday May 25 2019 - Sunday May 26 2019
||(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ACUS48 KWNS 190849
SPC AC 190847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
Upper pattern is expected to amplify on D4/Wednesday as upper
ridging builds across the southeast US and western CONUS upper
troughing deepens. By the early D5/Thursday, strong
south-southwesterly flow will exist between these two large-scale
features from the southern High Plains into the northern Plains.
Moisture return is expected on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, with
mid to upper 60s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as the SD/NE
border. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this low-level moisture
will contribute to moderate to strong instability in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement
that a shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains on Thursday.
Model consensus on the overall environment and synoptic evolution is
high enough to support the introduction of 15% severe probability
across the central Plains on D5/Thursday.
After D5/Thursday, guidance suggests the active shortwave pattern
slows down and trends towards a relatively stagnant western CONUS
trough/eastern CONUS ridge pattern through the weekend. Ample
moisture will still exist across the Plains to support severe
thunderstorms but the lack of a well-developed shortwave trough
leads to limited day-to-day predictability.
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