spc severe weather - big bay weather

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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 27 2020 6:11 am

Day 1

D4	Saturday May 30 2020 - Sunday May 31 2020	D7	Tuesday Jun 2 2020 - Wednesday Jun 3 2020
D5	Sunday May 31 2020 - Monday Jun 1 2020	D8	Wednesday Jun 3 2020 - Thursday Jun 4 2020
D6	Monday Jun 1 2020 - Tuesday Jun 2 2020	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

        


000
ACUS48 KWNS 260830
SWOD48
SPC AC 260828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will progress eastward from central Ontario/Upper
Great Lakes through much of Quebec on D4/Friday. An associated
surface low will move ahead of it while a cold front attendant to
this low moves across the Northeast. Mid-60s dewpoints and modest
instability may be in place ahead of this front, contributing to the
potential for strong to severe storms. Given some of the model
variability regarding frontal timing and quality of the low-level
moisture, forecast uncertainty is too high to outlook any areas at
this range.  

Upper ridging over much of the western CONUS early D4/Friday is
forecast to shift eastward, reaching the Plains by D6/Sunday. At the
same time, a strong shortwave trough will move through the western
periphery of this ridge, moving from central CA through the Pacific
Northwest and eventually cresting the ridge over the Canadian
Prairie Provinces. This shortwave may contribute to
severe-thunderstorm potential across the northern High Plains on
D6/Sunday and northern/central Plains on D7/Monday. However,
predictability remains low at this forecast range.

..Mosier.. 05/26/2020

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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