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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 20 2019 5:18 am


Day 1

D4Thursday May 23 2019 - Friday May 24 2019 D7Sunday May 26 2019 - Monday May 27 2019
D5Friday May 24 2019 - Saturday May 25 2019 D8Monday May 27 2019 - Tuesday May 28 2019
D6Saturday May 25 2019 - Sunday May 26 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
000 ACUS48 KWNS 190849 SWOD48 SPC AC 190847 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper pattern is expected to amplify on D4/Wednesday as upper ridging builds across the southeast US and western CONUS upper troughing deepens. By the early D5/Thursday, strong south-southwesterly flow will exist between these two large-scale features from the southern High Plains into the northern Plains. Moisture return is expected on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as the SD/NE border. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this low-level moisture will contribute to moderate to strong instability in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains on Thursday. Model consensus on the overall environment and synoptic evolution is high enough to support the introduction of 15% severe probability across the central Plains on D5/Thursday. After D5/Thursday, guidance suggests the active shortwave pattern slows down and trends towards a relatively stagnant western CONUS trough/eastern CONUS ridge pattern through the weekend. Ample moisture will still exist across the Plains to support severe thunderstorms but the lack of a well-developed shortwave trough leads to limited day-to-day predictability. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2019

Day 2

Day 3

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