spc severe weather - big bay weather

Online since October of 2007

Active alerts

Bigbaywx

mount mesnard

visit our other weather sites:

Template documentation
and downloads

And another site

CBI

No Warnings, Watches, or Advisories

Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

More SPC info on this site:

SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: May 20 2019 5:18 am

Day 1

D4	Thursday May 23 2019 - Friday May 24 2019	D7	Sunday May 26 2019 - Monday May 27 2019
D5	Friday May 24 2019 - Saturday May 25 2019	D8	Monday May 27 2019 - Tuesday May 28 2019
D6	Saturday May 25 2019 - Sunday May 26 2019	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

        


000
ACUS48 KWNS 190849
SWOD48
SPC AC 190847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify on D4/Wednesday as upper
ridging builds across the southeast US and western CONUS upper
troughing deepens. By the early D5/Thursday, strong
south-southwesterly flow will exist between these two large-scale
features from the southern High Plains into the northern Plains.
Moisture return is expected on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, with
mid to upper 60s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as the SD/NE
border. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this low-level moisture
will contribute to moderate to strong instability in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement
that a shortwave trough ejects into the central Plains on Thursday.
Model consensus on the overall environment and synoptic evolution is
high enough to support the introduction of 15% severe probability
across the central Plains on D5/Thursday.

After D5/Thursday, guidance suggests the active shortwave pattern
slows down and trends towards a relatively stagnant western CONUS
trough/eastern CONUS ridge pattern through the weekend. Ample
moisture will still exist across the Plains to support severe
thunderstorms but the lack of a well-developed shortwave trough
leads to limited day-to-day predictability.

..Mosier.. 05/19/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

you find our weather info also at:

equipment we use:

weather-station Davis VP2	weather-program Davis Weatherlink.Com