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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Oct 18 2019 4:23 am


 

Day 1

D4Monday Oct 21 2019 - Tuesday Oct 22 2019 D7Thursday Oct 24 2019 - Friday Oct 25 2019
D5Tuesday Oct 22 2019 - Wednesday Oct 23 2019 D8Friday Oct 25 2019 - Saturday Oct 26 2019
D6Wednesday Oct 23 2019 - Thursday Oct 24 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 170901 SWOD48 SPC AC 170900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear to be in reasonable agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features through Day 4 and into the first half of the Day 5 period. After this, differences in the evolution of the large trough progged to crossing the Plains states Day 4 and then the Mississippi Day 5 begin to become fairly substantial. As such, confidence in the predictability of the pattern beyond day 5 is quite limited. In the mean time, some potential for the evolution of scattered to isolated severe storms remains apparent over the eastern Oklahoma and Arklatex region and surrounding areas Day 4 (Sunday 10-20), as a deepening surface low shifts out of the central and northern High Plains and eventually reaches the Minnesota vicinity. Correspondingly, a trailing cold front is shown crossing eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon, as warm-sector destabilization becomes diurnally maximized. As favorably strong flow aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the advancing surface front, at least isolated cells -- developing as residual capping is locally breached -- will evolve within a sheared environment likely supportive of rotating updrafts. Storms may diminish somewhat in intensity overnight, but it appears that reintensification of convection -- and regeneration of accompanying severe risk -- should occur across portions of the central Gulf Coast region, as the front continues its eastward advance through an amply moist/destabilizing low-level airmass. Again, potential for supercells, and all severe hazards, appears possible. By Day 6, model differences -- including with location of the surface frontal position -- have become substantial enough to preclude continuation of severe risk into the eastern Gulf Coast/southern Atlantic Coast states. ..Goss.. 10/17/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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