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Special Weather Statement

Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Jan 21 2019 12:32 pm

Day 1

D4	Thursday Jan 24 2019 - Friday Jan 25 2019	D7	Sunday Jan 27 2019 - Monday Jan 28 2019
D5	Friday Jan 25 2019 - Saturday Jan 26 2019	D8	Monday Jan 28 2019 - Tuesday Jan 29 2019
D6	Saturday Jan 26 2019 - Sunday Jan 27 2019	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

        


000
ACUS48 KWNS 210830
SWOD48
SPC AC 210829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On Thursday/D4, a cold front will be located near the East Coast and
trailing into central Florida, beneath a strong, meridional jet max
which will quickly move offshore by afternoon. Sufficient
instability will exist over Florida for a few thunderstorms during
the day, but lift will decrease over time, and severe weather is not
expected.

After this particular disturbance moves offshore, a very large upper
trough will amplify over eastern North America, with the upper low
shifting south toward James Bay. The resulting northwest flow regime
over the Plains will support periodic surges of cold, dry air, in
turn keeping any significant moisture and instability offshore. As a
result, little to no thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS
through the remainder of the outlook period.

..Jewell.. 01/21/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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