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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Mar 25 2019 12:37 am

Day 1

D4	Wednesday Mar 27 2019 - Thursday Mar 28 2019	D7	Saturday Mar 30 2019 - Sunday Mar 31 2019
D5	Thursday Mar 28 2019 - Friday Mar 29 2019	D8	Sunday Mar 31 2019 - Monday Apr 1 2019
D6	Friday Mar 29 2019 - Saturday Mar 30 2019	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

        


000
ACUS48 KWNS 240849
SWOD48
SPC AC 240847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to forecast moisture return over the
southern Plains on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday while an upper
trough slowly moves across the western CONUS. All of the guidance
has trended slower with this upper trough, limiting the forcing for
ascent throughout the warm sector on D5/Thursday. The lack of
stronger forcing for ascent coupled with only modest low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints across OK and KS generally in the mid 50s)
is currently expected to keep the warm sector capped on D5/Thursday.
Best chance for severe thunderstorms on D5/Thursday currently
appears to be late in the evening and overnight within the warm
advection north of the warm front. Even so, too much uncertainty
exists to outlook any areas.

For D6/Friday, thunderstorms are expected along a cold front surging
across the central and southern Plains. Robust warm-sector
convection is currently expected to be limited by stunted daytime
heating and warm mid-level temperatures. The fast-moving nature of
the cold front could also lead to undercutting. 

Outlook areas may eventually be needed for both of these days once
forecast uncertainties resolve and the locations of the greatest
severe thunderstorm potential become more apparent.

..Mosier.. 03/24/2019

Day 2

Day 3

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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