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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Mar 25 2019 12:37 am


 

Day 1

D4Wednesday Mar 27 2019 - Thursday Mar 28 2019 D7Saturday Mar 30 2019 - Sunday Mar 31 2019
D5Thursday Mar 28 2019 - Friday Mar 29 2019 D8Sunday Mar 31 2019 - Monday Apr 1 2019
D6Friday Mar 29 2019 - Saturday Mar 30 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
        
000 ACUS48 KWNS 240849 SWOD48 SPC AC 240847 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to forecast moisture return over the southern Plains on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday while an upper trough slowly moves across the western CONUS. All of the guidance has trended slower with this upper trough, limiting the forcing for ascent throughout the warm sector on D5/Thursday. The lack of stronger forcing for ascent coupled with only modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints across OK and KS generally in the mid 50s) is currently expected to keep the warm sector capped on D5/Thursday. Best chance for severe thunderstorms on D5/Thursday currently appears to be late in the evening and overnight within the warm advection north of the warm front. Even so, too much uncertainty exists to outlook any areas. For D6/Friday, thunderstorms are expected along a cold front surging across the central and southern Plains. Robust warm-sector convection is currently expected to be limited by stunted daytime heating and warm mid-level temperatures. The fast-moving nature of the cold front could also lead to undercutting. Outlook areas may eventually be needed for both of these days once forecast uncertainties resolve and the locations of the greatest severe thunderstorm potential become more apparent. ..Mosier.. 03/24/2019

Day 2

Day 3

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