Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 171945
SWODY1
SPC AC 171944

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Discussion...

Previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed.

..Dial.. 11/17/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018/

...Synopsis/Forecast...
Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow over the CONUS in conjunction
with high pressure and cold/stable conditions east of the Rockies
will largely preclude deeper convection across the Lower 48. One
exception may be across far south TX. While ascent within the warm
sector will be weak, it still appears that thermodynamic profiles
will become marginally conducive for thunderstorms late
tonight/early Sunday across the middle/lower TX coastal plain, near
and ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4