Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 220041
SWODY1
SPC AC 220040

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm risk continues across parts of southeast
Missouri and western Illinois where a few tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts will be possible. An isolated tornado threat along with
hail and wind damage will continue to be possible in central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
central Plains with an associated upper-level trough extending
southeastward across the Ozarks. At the surface, a warm front is
located across south-central Illinois. South of the front, a moist
airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. A
squall-line is located from just east of St. Louis southward into
southeast Missouri and north-central Arkansas. The strongest part of
the squall-line is located along the axis of the low-level jet just
east of the Mississippi River in western Illinois. The low-level jet
is creating favorable conditions for QLCS tornadoes along the
leading edge of the squall-line. The best chance for tornado
development will be near and just to the south of where the
squall-line interacts with the warm front. This threat for tornadoes
will likely continue for a couple more hours as the line moves
eastward into central and southern Illinois. A wind damage threat
will be likely with the stronger segments of the squall-line with
this threat extending southward into far southeast Missouri. The
threat will be marginal southwestward into the Arklatex where
large-scale ascent and low-level flow is considerably weaker.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
central Plains with a cold front moving eastward across central
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture is present from western Missouri into
northeast Kansas and far southeast Nebraska. Instability is
maximized along this corridor with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values
800 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition, a low-level speed max is
analyzed by the RAP in north-central Kansas. This is creating a
strong low-level shear environment across northwest Missouri,
northeast Kansas and far southeast Nebraska. Because of the enhanced
low-level shear along this corridor, rotating cells that move
northeastward across the area will have a continued tornado threat
for a couple more hours. The stronger storms will also have a
potential for large hail and wind damage...see MCD 728.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2019

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Day 3

Day 4