Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 221609
SWODY1
SPC AC 221607

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest potential for damaging to severe thunderstorm winds and
a few tornadoes today will be over parts of Ohio, West Virginia and
western Pennsylvania.

...Upper OH Valley...
A deep upper trough is moving slowly eastward across parts of
IL/IN/KY today, with an associated surface cold front extending from
central OH southward into east TN and northern GA.  A pocket of
partly cloudy conditions has developed ahead of the front from
central WV into eastern OH and western PA.  Continued afternoon
heating/destabilization will yield MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 
A surface low along the front over OH will deepen today as it tracks
into western PA.  Backing/strengthening low-level winds ahead of the
low will enhance convergence and aid in the development of
thunderstorms along the cold front.  Shear profiles will be rather
strong, posing the risk of supercell and bowing structures capable
of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.  Storms should weaken by
early evening as they move into more stable air over central PA.

...VA and Carolinas...
The aforementioned surface cold front will move across the mountains
of western VA/NC this afternoon.  Warm and humid conditions ahead of
the front will result in thunderstorm development.  Low and
deep-layer wind fields in this region are weaker than farther north,
suggesting storms will be less organized.  Nevertheless, isolated
intense cells may develop, with locally damaging winds possible.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 09/22/2021

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Day 3

Day 4