Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 170508
SWODY1
SPC AC 170506

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may become severe this afternoon from eastern Texas
across the southern Gulf Coast states, with the main threat being
damaging gusts.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will stretch from the Plains to
the East Coast, with an upper low drifting over New England.
Midlevel northwesterlies will average under 30 kt across the Plains,
while stronger 30-35 kt westerlies will affect the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the West, with
an upper high centered over ID.

At the surface, high pressure from the Great Lakes to the central
Plains will gradually shift south, with a cold front stretching from
central TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states during the
afternoon. Upper 60s to 70s F dewpoints will contribute to moderate
instability ahead of the front, which will provide a focus for
scattered afternoon storms.

Elsewhere, steep lapse rates within a weak northwest flow regime
over the northern High Plains will result in scattered high-based
storms, possibly producing a few strong afternoon gusts.

...East TX to northern FL...
Storms will likely be ongoing near and north of the front from AR
into northern MS this morning, with lift enhanced by modest warm
advection from the west at 850 mb. Strong heating ahead of the front
will result in a transition to surface-based storms, after about
20Z. A line of storms running east-west near the front is forecast,
but this is also parallel to the weak midlevel flow. Storms are most
likely to be concentrated from eastern TX into LA and MS, with other
scattered activity into AL, GA and FL.

It appears that the composite front/outflow boundary will
continually undercut the developing storms, and it is unclear how
quickly new cells will regenerate for propagation. At least isolated
strong to severe gusts appear likely given the favorable time of day
with steep low-level lapse rates and expected storm aggregation.
Small areas of storms may persist after sunset, but any wind threat
is expected to be largely diurnal.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 08/17/2022

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4