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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jan 21 2019 12:31 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 210508
SWODY1
SPC AC 210507

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probability of lightning is less than 10% across the country today.

...Discussion...

Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the southern
Great Basin into the southern Rockies by the end of the period. As a
result, cooling profiles will lead to steep mid-level lapse rates
across the Four-Corners region during the day as a strong jet
settles into southern AZ/NM. While absolute moisture content will be
scant from northern AZ into CO, forecast soundings suggest weak
buoyancy will develop as profiles cool/moisten. Weak convection will
likely evolve along a pronounced front as it surges across the
Four-Corners, and while an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled
out, the probability for thunderstorms should remain less than 10%
due to cold profiles and weak buoyancy.

..Darrow/Karstens.. 01/21/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

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