Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 240102
SWODY1
SPC AC 240101

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated downburst winds remain possible this evening over the
northern Rockies region as well as over southern Arizona.

...Northern Rockies area...

Mid-level ascent accompanying a series of embedded vorticity maxima
moving around the northern periphery of an upper ridge along with
heating over the mountains has fostered the development of scattered
thunderstorms over the northern Rockies. The Great Falls MT 00Z RAOB
shows a well mixed boundary layer from 900-650 mb, with 50F near
surface temperature-dewpoint spreads along with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
This environment will promote a few instances of downburst winds as
storms move northeast off the higher terrain this evening.

Other storms may develop later this evening from northeastern WA
into northern ID, along a cold front accompanied by deeper forcing
for ascent attending a shortwave trough moving through the Pacific
Northwest. These storms will exist within a strongly sheared
environment and may pose at least a marginal risk for a few strong
to damaging gusts. Overall severe threat in this region should
remain limited by weak instability and a stabilizing near-surface
layer. 

...Southern Arizona...

Storms moving westward off the higher terrain will remain capable of
producing isolated downburst winds over southern AZ this evening
where deeply mixed boundary layers and steep low-level lapse rates
exist.

..Dial.. 07/24/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4