Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260101

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Risk for severe weather will continue during the evening hours
across far northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan.

...Western Upper Michigan and adjacent northern Wisconsin...
A small cluster of stronger thunderstorms has evolved this evening
over portions of western Lake Superior and into adjacent parts of
western Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin.  The convection is
occurring just ahead of an advancing surface front, where a narrow
axis of modest (around 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE is indicated.  

While instability is limited -- and should gradually diminish both
with time, and with eastward extent, strong low-level flow
veering/increasing with eight to southwesterly at mid levels is
providing favorable shear for organized/supercell storms.  As such,
a narrow window -- both temporally and spatially -- remains evident
where potential for large hail and locally damaging winds, along
with a tornado or two, exists.  This threat should diminish as
midnight approaches, and storms shift into an increasingly less
unstable airmass.

...Central and eastern South Carolina/southeast North Carolina...
Moderate/veering flow with height persists across the Atlantic Coast
states, near and east of a north-south surface trough extending from
Virginia to Florida.  A moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates
aloft continues to support around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE from
southeastern North Carolina southward, where showers and scattered
thunderstorms continue.  The overall environment -- kinematically
and thermodynamically -- remains supportive of an occasional
stronger storm or two, with locally gusty winds or even a brief
tornado possible.  While limited overall, this potential may linger
for a few more hours, as the mid-level trough crossing the central
Appalachians continues moving steadily eastward toward the Mid
Atlantic coast.

..Goss.. 09/26/2020

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4