Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 242001
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ARKLATEX
REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected from north Texas to southern
Missouri and southwestern Illinois, mainly offering hail and
damaging gusts.

...20Z update...
Based on observational trends and short-term guidance, minimal
updates necessary as Slight/Enhanced Risks appear to capture main
corridor of severe weather that is expected to unfold through the
afternoon and evening. See discussion below for additional details.
Some spatial adjustments were made across the Middle Mississippi
Valley for a northward expansion of mainly isolated/marginal hail
potential.

..Guyer.. 03/24/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/

...MO/IL...
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive upper low over
southeast NE, with an associated mid-level speed max over KS/OK.
This feature will track eastward today into the middle MS Valley,
providing increasing ascent and deep-layer vertical shear for
thunderstorm development/organization.  Visible imagery shows
substantial clearing/heating is occurring across southern MO and
southwest IL, where surface dewpoints are rising into the 50s and
low level lapse rates are steepening.  This should aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon across
southern MO.  Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for
discrete supercells capable of large hail.  The tornado risk will be
limited by veering low level winds and rather low dewpoint values. 
However, the damaging wind threat should increase as storms track
eastward into southern IL during the late afternoon.  Have added an
ENH risk area for hail coverage across parts of southeast MO and
southwest IL, where 12z CAM solutions provide greatest confidence.

...Arklatex Region...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak warm front extending from
southeast OK into southern AR.  The air mass south of this front is
relatively moist and moderately unstable with dewpoints near 60F. 
Models are consistent in the development of scattered intense storms
this afternoon, with supercells capable of hail expected.  This
activity is likely to organize into a more linear structure through
the evening, but continue to pose a risk of hail along with locally
damaging winds.  Activity may remain strong well into the night,
affecting southeast AR/northeast LA and western MS.  Similar to
northern area, parameters and confidence support inclusion of ENH
risk area for afternoon/evening hail risk.

$$

        

Day 3

Day 4