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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 27 2020 12:09 pm


Convective Tornado Hail Wind <= Move cursor over selections to display the selected graphic below.

Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 270556
SWODY1
SPC AC 270555

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing very large hail and significant wind
gusts are expected over parts of central Texas late this afternoon
and evening, with lesser severe-weather potential over parts of the
central Gulf Coast region and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over southeast OK, with
various waves rotating around from TX to the lower MS Valley. A
leading wave will move northeast across MS and AL during the
afternoon, providing a lobe of coolness aloft and increased
deep-layer mean winds favoring scattered strong storms across LA, MS
and AL. 

To the west, a secondary wave will drop south across northwest TX
during the late afternoon, and into central TX during the evening.
Here, access to steep low-level lapse rates under a strong northwest
flow regime is likely to result in damaging storms.

Elsewhere, while upper ridging will occur over the Northeast,
warm/moist advection across parts of ME may support isolated,
marginal hail.

...Texas...
Low pressure will gradually deepen over western and central TX as a
cold front surges south across the Panhandle and South Plains. Much
of the day will be free of storms across central TX, allowing
maximum heating. Storms are expected to initiate around 21Z over
west-central TX, with a rapid expansion east/southeast through
evening. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor vigorous updrafts, with
storms initially supercells exhibiting substantial forward
tilt/tight reflectivity gradients. Forecast hodographs indicate a
common significant hail setup for the southern Plains, with weak
southerly surface winds/marginal SRH beneath strong mid and upper
level winds creating lengthy hodographs. In addition to very large
hail, localized wind gusts around 75 mph will be possible as cold
pools build.

...Central Gulf Coast states...
Steepening deep-layer lapse rates will lead to substantial
instability with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg over much of LA, MS, and
southern AL this afternoon. All this will occur beneath modest, mean
southerly flow aloft, resulting in scattered, mixed-mode storms.
Localized wind damage or marginally severe hail is possible.
Less-than-ideal shear, including weak winds below 850 mb, precludes
a more substantial supercell threat.

...Carolinas...
A weak tropical disturbance is forecast to shift north across the
Carolinas today resulting in moistening and destabilization well
inland. Little if any heating will occur, but instability will
become sufficient for a few strong storms focused near the surface
trough developing over the central Carolinas. As a 30-40 kt midlevel
speed max moves north over the area, effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2
may develop, favoring storm-scale rotation and a possible tornado or
wind gust threat.

...Northern Maine...
Strong heating will occur today, with 60s dewpoints contributing to
over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE near a diffuse warm front across northern
Maine. Isolated storms are possible where low-level convergence is
sufficient near the wind shift. Forecast soundings indicate an
uncapped air mass, with light but veering winds with height
resulting in small, but favorably shaped hodographs for single cell
storms. Given cool temperatures aloft, marginally severe hail is
possible.

..Jewell/Lyons.. 05/27/2020

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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