Day 2

Categorical Day 1 Outlook

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

000
ACUS01 KWNS 260031
SWODY1
SPC AC 260029

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered damaging gusts are possible mainly this
evening across northern Indiana into southern portions of Lower
Michigan.

...OH Valley/Great Lakes...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Upper Midwest translating eastward towards the Great Lakes.  A band
of thunderstorms over the southern Great Lakes will continue
eastward along the southern border of Lower MI.  A moist airmass
sampled by the 00Z DTX raob shows moderate buoyancy (1100 J/kg
MLCAPE) with a deep nearly saturated profile from the surface
through 600mb.  Seemingly sufficient low and deep-layer shear will
support organized storm structures capable of mainly an isolated to
widely scattered wind damage risk and perhaps a brief/weak tornado
during the evening hours.  Later tonight as the mid-level trough
encroaches on the Great Lakes, the band of convection near the front
will continue to sweep eastward toward the lower Great Lakes and an
isolated risk for wind damage may continue in the moist/weakly
buoyant environment.

..Smith.. 09/26/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4